Press Releases

Futures Group to Model Impact of AIDS Vaccine

Washington, D.C., August 10, 2005—The International AIDS Vaccine Initiative has selected Futures Group to develop a country-specific model to estimate the impact of an AIDS vaccine in middle and low income countries. It will use the model to further refine calculations of the effect of an AIDS vaccine and to provide a tool for in-country advocacy. 

Civil society groups in affected countries can use results generated from the model to increase funding of research and development of the vaccine and to advocate for specific implementation plans. The model will be applied to six countries, which have yet to be selected.

“The HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to be one of the world's greatest health challenges,” said John Stover, who is leading this project. “Each year there are three million AIDS deaths and five million new infections. Prevention efforts to date have been inadequate to meet this challenge. An AIDS vaccine would provide another tool in the fight against the AIDS epidemic. Widespread implementation of an effective AIDS vaccine would prevent millions of AIDS deaths and save billions of dollars.”

Vaccines work in two ways: by preventing the transmission from an infected person or by preventing the acquisition of a disease by an uninfected person. The impact of a vaccine on the number of new infections depends of several factors: the vaccine’s efficacy, the type of protection it provides, the duration of protection, the target population, the coverage achieved in the target population, and the dynamics of the epidemic. Futures Group will create a model that simulates the transmission of HIV infection by sexual contact, the sharing of needles, and from mother to child. Using different scenarios of vaccine implementation, the model will demonstrate how the number of new infections changes over time.

The International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, the global not-for-profit organization funding the project, works to speed the search for a vaccine to prevent HIV infection and AIDS. It works with public and private organizations to integrate research and development with public policy and advocacy.

About Constella Group, LLC
Constella Group is a leading provider of professional health services worldwide, dedicated to enhancing human health around the world, every day. Constella's three business units—Health Sciences, Futures Group and Clinical Informatics—create and provide health intelligence to help industry and government clients identify and solve critical problems affecting human health. Headquartered in Durham, N.C., the company has approximately 1,100 employees with offices in 35 countries throughout the world.