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Software Downloads and Manuals
Constella Futures has developed approaches to increase leadership support
for effective policymaking. A key element of many of these approaches is the
analysis of existing information to determine the future consequences of today's
programs and policies.
Computer modeling is an important tool in this work. Constella Futures designs
software applications to analyze existing information, helping policymakers
determine the impact of specific reproductive health programs.
In June 2006, Futures Group changed its name to Constella Futures. Some software
produced prior to the name change may reference Futures Group rather than Constella
Futures.
SPECTRUM is a suite of policy models that make use of a unified set of Windows-based
commands that can be easily learned. The models comprising SPECTRUM are used
to project the need for reproductive health services and the consequences of
not addressing reproductive health needs. Most models are available in English,
French, and Spanish. Some are also available in Portuguese, Arabic, and Russian.
Each model includes a detailed user manual that not only describes how to use
the software but also includes sections on data sources, interpreting and using
the results, a tutorial, and a description of the methodology.
The SPECTRUM modeling system consolidates the following models into an integrated
package:
- AIDS Impact Model (AIM)
AIM projects the consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the number
of people living with HIV/AIDS, new infections, and AIDS deaths by age
and sex as well as new cases of tuberculosis and AIDS orphans. AIM is used
by UNAIDS to make the national and regional estimates it releases every
two years.
AIM Manual (English, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Russian)
- Allocate
Allocate is a tool that examines the linkages and interactions between three
main areas of a representative reproductive health action plan: family
planning, safe motherhood, and post-abortion care. The purpose of Allocate
is to show the interactive impacts of changing decisions about levels of
funding. It summarizes output from other Spectrum models on one summary
screen. Allocate then provides a mechanism to re-allocate and/or increase
budgets for each of the various models, with resultant impacts shown on
the summary screen.
Allocate Manual (English)
- BenCost: Financial benefits and costs of family planning programs
BenCost compares the monetary cost of family planning programs to the monetary
benefits in terms of reduced levels of social services required at lower
levels of fertility. Benefits are defined as savings in government expenses
on social services. BenCost is a module that allows planners to add the
cost of health, education, and other social services to population projections
created with the DemProj and FamPlan modules. BenCost can be used to study
the long-term economic costs and benefits to society resulting from changes
in family planning programs.
BenCost Manual (English)
- Condom Requirements
Condom Requirements is a program to forecast national condom requirements
for both family planning and HIV/AIDS prevention, focusing on the critical
groups at risk in the population.
Condom Requirements Manual (English)
- Demography (DemProj)
DemProj projects the population for an entire country or region by age and
sex, based on assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration. A
full set of demographic indicators can be displayed for up to 50 years
into the future. Urban and rural projections can also be prepared. A companion
model, EasyProj, supplies the data needed to make a population projection
from the estimates produced by the Population Division of the United Nations.
DemProj Manual (English, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Russian)
- Family Planning (FamPlan)
FamPlan projects family planning requirements needed to reach national goals
for addressing unmet need or achieving desired fertility. It can be used
to set realistic goals and to plan for the service expansion required to
meet program objectives. The program uses assumptions about the proximate
determinants of fertility and the characteristics of the family planning
program (method mix, source mix, discontinuation rates) to calculate the
cost and the number of users and acceptors of different methods by source.
Various strategies can be simulated as a way to evaluate alternative methods
of achieving program goals.
FamPlan Manual (English, French, Spanish)
- NewGen: Reproductive health for adolescents
NewGen projects the characteristics of the adolescent population in terms
of such indicators as school enrollment, sexual activity, pregnancy rates,
prevalence of HIV and STIs, and marriage rates. The linkages among these
indicators and the effects of policy changes can be examined.
NewGen Manual (English)
- PMTCT: Prevention to Maternal-to-Child Transmission
PMTCT evaluates the costs and benefits of intervention programs to reduce
transmission of HIV from mother to child. Three different sets of interventions
are included in the model: drug treatment (seven possible options); type
of delivery (vaginal or Cesarean section); and type of infant feeding (formula,
breastfeeding, or mixed). Outputs include a benefit-cost ratio as well
as cost-effectiveness measures such as cost per HIV infection averted.
PMTCT Manual (English, Spanish, French)
- RAPID: Resources for the Awareness of Population Impacts on Development
RAPID projects the social and economic consequences of high fertility and
rapid population growth for such sectors as labor, education, health, urbanization,
and agriculture. This program is used to raise policymakers' awareness
of the importance of fertility and population growth as factors in social
and economic development.
Rapid Manual (English, French, Spanish)
- Safe Motherhood Model
This model represents the relationships between a national maternal health
program and the resulting maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and the number
of maternal deaths. The model helps determine which safe motherhood interventions,
alone or in combination, help reduce the maternal mortality rate.
SMM Manual (English)
Additional Models developed by Constella Futures include:
- AIM-B
AIM-B is an economic and demographic model designed to help managers analyze
how HIV/AIDS is affecting their businesses and project how it will affect
them in the future. This simplified on-line version of AIM-B estimates
the main direct costs of HIV/AIDS in health, recruitment and benefit costs.
It does not estimate the epidemic's affect on productivity, labor relations,
workforce morale, or absenteeism. A more thorough analysis of HIV/AIDS'
current and future impact is available from Constella Futures, who also
advise businesses on how to analyze and manage the risks of HIV/AIDS and
to launch effective, sustainable prevention and care programs.
Click here for AIM-B
- EPP: Estimation and Projection Package
The Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) is used to estimate and project
adult HIV prevalence from surveillance data. The input to EPP is surveillance
data from various sites and years showing HIV prevalence among pregnant
women. EPP is used to fit a simple epidemic model to data from urban and
rural sites. The prevalence projection produced by EPP can be transferred
to Spectrum to calculate the number of people infected, AIDS cases, AIDS-related
deaths, etc. EPP was developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on estimates,
models and projections and programmed at the East West Center. The EPP
model and manual in English, French, Spanish and Russian can be downloaded
from the
UNAIDS website.
- GOALS
GOALS addresses the issue of resource allocation for HIV/AIDS programs. The
model is intended to help answer a number of key resource allocation questions
including: How much funding is required to achieve the goals of the strategic
plan? If funding is limited, what goals can be achieved with available
funding? And, what is the effect of different ways of allocating available
resources among various prevention, care, and mitigation interventions? GOALS also allows for the calculation of cost effectiveness measures such as cost per infection averted and cost per life year saved.
GOALS ModelGOALS
Model 2006 / Data
for GOALS
GOALS Manual (English, French, Spanish)
GOALS Overview (English, Spanish)
- HIV/AIDS Policy Compendium
A searchable database of national policies concerning HIV/AIDS. You can search
by key word or do a free text search to find policy statements for particular
issues (e.g., human rights, testing) or countries.
Search the HIV/AIDS Policy Compendium
- Resources Needs Model
The Resource Needs Model is an Excel worksheet that calculates the
funding required for an expanded response to HIV/AIDS at the national level.
The Worksheet contains three submodels: the prevention models, which calculate
the cost of 12 prevention interventions; the care and treatment models,
which estimates the cost of five types of care and treatment programs;
and the orphan support model, which calculates the cost of three interventions
to support children orphaned by AIDS.
The Resource Needs Model has been used by UNAIDS to estimate global and regional
resource requirements for HIV/AIDS, e.g., the UNGASS (UN General Assembly
Special Session on HIV/AIDS) estimates in 2001 and the updated estimates
in 2006.
Resource
Needs Model download
Resource Needs Manual ( English, French, Spanish)
- Workplace Policy Builder
Workplace Policy Builder (WPB) is software designed to assist companies in
developing their own HIV/AIDS policies through a participatory process.
WPB guides the user through the process of developing a policy, step by
step. It includes a number of resources: a database of corporate workplace
policies from around the world, a literature database of the impact of
HIV/AIDS, national HIV/AIDS policies, international standards, the AIM-B
model, and a component for assessing the cost of any proposed program.
Workplace
Policy Builder download
WPB
Fact Sheet
Facilitator’s
Guide
Facilitator’s
Guide — Appendix
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